When you think of upstart, spoiler programs in the Big Ten and other major conferences, a few general characteristics come to mind. Maybe the team is very physical and super-responsible on the field like the Iowa Hawkeyes, who pistol-whipped Ohio State to drop the Buckeyes from the ranks of the unbeaten. Or maybe Mississippi State, a team without an elite passer that nevertheless moves the chains and plays tough defense.

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• Notre Dame Football Results History
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• Notre Dame Vs Northwestern Spread Odds

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Northwestern Wildcats Odds - Tuesday November 22 2016. Live betting odds and lines, betting trends, against the spread and over/under trends, injury reports.

You certainly don’t think of a surprise 5-and-3 squad turning it over left and right.

But Northwestern is winning in spite of QB Clayton Thorsen’s TD-to-INT ratio, which is currently at an even 10-10…an absolutely horrible number in modern football. Thorsen tossed 3 picks in last week’s 31-17 triumph over Wisconsin, and he’s certainly not making up for it in the ground game like Nick Fitzgerald of MSU. The slow-footed QB’s running stats are a big fat negative on the season.

1. Notre Dame has struggled to cover big spreads. Since 2005, when the Irish are favored by seven or more points, they are just 33-46-2 (42%) against the spread. Northwestern has won four consecutive games. Since 2005, teams playing at home on a win streak of two or more games have gone 102-75-5 (58%) ATS when getting seven or more points.
2. The Buckeyes are 12-7-1 against the spread this season. The Hoosiers are 11-7-1. 8 — @ Notre Dame Ohio State 90, Notre Dame 85. 13 — vs Northwestern Ohio State 81.

It’s not as if the Wildcats have a crushing ground game to buoy Thorsen. The team is averaging a poor 2.6 yards per carry.

Notre Dame Vs Northwestern History

So how is Northwestern winning games against quality programs? The answer is that there’s no single formula. The ‘Cats are simply finding ways to scrape out victories on a weekly basis. Still, bettors are skeptical as a TD-margin on the opening point spread for Northwestern vs Notre Dame has expanded to 10 points with the action.

Who: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Northwestern Wildcats

When: Saturday, November 3rd, 7:15 PM EST

Where: Ryan Field, Evanston, IL

Lines: UND (-10) at NW (+10) / O/U Total: (53.5)

Northwestern vs Notre Dame: Vegas Odds and Analysis

Saturday’s underdogs allowed a mediocre Michigan State offense 400+ combined yards on the following weekend, while the Northwestern run-blocking effort hit its low point against the Spartans. But somehow the Wildcats won by 10 points on the road, Thorsen coming alive with 3 touchdown passes.

Northwestern put out another uneven performance last weekend against ailing Wisconsin. The Badgers rushed for over 5 yards per carry while Thorson served-up gimmes to visiting DBs. But frosh running back Isaiah Bowser, whose family apparently took its surname from the Super Mario Brothers villain, had his 2^nd 100-yard game in a row as the Wildcat defense did its own number on Wisconsin QB Jack Coan and a frustrated group of Badger receivers.

The program from Chicago might be the most unpredictable handicap in college football this season. They can run the ball, except when they can’t at all. They can pass, but often pass it right to the other team. Defense is hot and cold, and the special teams is led by a walk-on….who has connected on 4 out of 5 field goal attempts so far.

It’s one thing to prove the experts wrong, but another to prove them right and still win anyway.

However, unless the Wildcats can put it all together on all 3 units this weekend, they’re unlikely to challenge a #3 ranked powerhouse that may be under-valued thanks to a pair of closer-than-expected results over the last 2 weeks.

Notre Dame Football Results History

It’s important for bettors to know when to stop under-estimating a top team.

Personally, I thought Michigan was going to beat UND in Week 1. It didn’t happen – instead the Fighting Irish defense humiliated Jim Harbaugh’s souped-up 2018 offense as seniors Jerry Tillery and Te’von Coney lived in the Wolverine backfield.

Then the Irish barely slipped past teams like Ball State and Vanderbilt for a couple weeks. Again, they were written off as an eventual loser who would fall to better competition. Instead, Notre Dame romped over Stanford and Virginia Tech. What junior QB Ian Book has taken away from the running game (coaches do not want him running as often or as aggressively as Brandon Wimbush) he adds with his passing arm. Kelly’s new starter behind center has hit some roadblocks against rivals Pittsburgh and Navy over the past 2 games, but he has also thrown just 12 incompletions on around 70 attempts over the last 8 quarters. His accuracy gives the offense a new dimension.

Finally, what about those final scores against Pitt and the Navy Midshipmen? Sure, the Irish let down in the 3^rd quarter against the Middies, but the 44-22 tally was deceptive. Navy was playing for pride in the 2^nd half after getting blown away in the 1^st half.

Notre Dame has proven this year that close results against tough, if not elite Power-5 teams (and even the occasional mid-major) is not much to worry about. The point-scoring is ready to cycle upward again.

My Prediction and Best Bet for UND at Northwestern

The point spread is too thin. Northwestern has found ways to hang around and win games, especially at home, but the Wildcats can’t do it against a well-balanced and more athletic team on a hot streak.

Expect the Irish to give their best effort and dismiss the ‘Cats by the 4^th frame.

Take UND to cover (-10) points on Saturday night.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday, November 3rd, 7:15 PM
Where: Ryan Field, Evanston, IL
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: ND -8 / NW +8
Over/Under Total: 53.5

Notre Dame heads to Illinois to take on Northwestern in a primetime Saturday Night showdown at Ryan Field. The Irish lead the all-time series 37-9, but it is the Wildcats that have won the last two meetings between the teams including a 43-40 victory in South Bend back in 2014.

Northwestern comes in with plenty of momentum after upsetting Wisconsin 31-17 a week ago. They have managed to turn their season around after a disappointing 1-3 start entirely and have now won four games in a row to get their record back to 5-3. All five victories have come in conference play, and they are now in complete control of their own destiny and can take home the Big Ten West title if they win their remaining games against Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois.

NORTHWESTERN OFFENSE

The Wildcats are led at quarterback by senior Clayton Thorson, who accounted for three touchdowns in their big win against the Badgers last Saturday. Unfortunately, he also threw three interceptions, which has been an ongoing issue this season as he has the same amount of touchdowns as he does INTs with ten of each. Against an opportune Irish defense this weekend, he will need to play at his efficient best as it will make it that much more difficult for them to pull the upset if he is unable to control his turnover proneness.

At running back, Northwestern is still expected to be without starting running back Jeremy Larkin, though his backup Isaiah Bowser has been a more than capable replacement in his absence. Bowser has cleared the 100-yard mark in both of their last two games and overall has put up 225 yards and three touchdowns in that time frame. As a team though they have struggled as a whole and rank just 127th in the country in rushing yards per game. They have thankfully been better through the air and will continue to count on a trio of targets to get support a passing attack that comes in at 29th nationally. Flynn Nagel, Bennett Skowronek, and Cameron Green all have at least 30 receptions on the season and should continue to be the primary targets for Thorson and the Wildcat passing attack.

NOTRE DAME OFFENSE

For Notre Dame, they are coming in off of an easy 44-22 win against Navy. It was business as usual for the Irish offense who saw their usual offensive format take the shape of quarterback Ian Book completing a high percentage of passes, Myles Boykin stepping up as his favorite target and Dexter Williams leading the way on the ground. The team is now 8-0 for the first time since the 2012 season that saw them go undefeated before getting rolled by Alabama in the BCS Championship Game.

BOOK SMARTS

Ian Book was able to make it five straight starts with a win and a completion percentage of at least 70%, becoming the first quarterback to do so since in college football since Russell Wilson for Wisconsin back in 2012. He has now completed 76.5% of his passes on the season while throwing for 13 touchdowns compared to four interceptions. Book also remains a threat on the ground as well with three rushing touchdowns and has at least six rushing attempts in all five of his starts so far.

The Irish ground game got a further boost last week with the return of Jafar Armstrong from injury. Armstrong was a key component early on for the team with Dexter Williams out on suspension, and he celebrated his return to the field with a rushing touchdown while also putting up 116 total yards from scrimmage. He is a great offset to star back Dexter Williams, who continues to dominate since his return and now has seven touchdowns in his last four games with an impressive 6.9 yards per carry average.

Notre Dame Vs Northwestern Spread Bleacher Report

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Notre Dame Vs Northwestern Spread Odds

This weeks’ game at Northwestern is one of just four games remaining on the Irish schedule. Home contests against Florida State and Syracuse followed by a season-ending battle at USC are all that remains between them and a spot in the BCS playoffs. Unfortunately for the Irish this the point in the season where they have run into issues in recent years, as they have gone just 9-12 in their last 21 games in November. They can nary afford a hiccup if they want to keep those playoff hopes alive.

NOTRE DAME AT NORTHWESTERN PREDICTION

Both teams enter this weekend playing at a high level and riding a big wave of momentum. This weeks’ game was a tough one to call, but despite it being at Northwestern I am backing the Irish to continue their success, as I just don’t believe the Wildcats have the offense to trade points with Book and Notre Dame. In a game that could remain close until late, you can count on the Irish to get the win and cover on to the road at Northwestern.

Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -8

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